RegimeLab publishes macro judgments, and stands behind them.
Structured macro states, path probabilities and triggers — with committed macro probabilities with an auditable history — every judgment versioned and preserved exactly as published. When the view changes, the record shows what changed, when, and why.
What RegimeLab believes now
CANONICAL JUDGMENTmacro-us · v1.0.0as-of —
Current Growth State
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Momentum direction now — not a forecast
Current Inflation State
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Price momentum vs target
12-month resolution paths — outcomes, not current state. A decelerating economy can still most-likely avoid recession.
Continued Expansion · 12M No recession; reacceleration rule not met
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Recession · 12M NBER-determined recession occurs
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Reacceleration · 12M No recession + reacceleration rule met
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Framework-adjudicated probabilities — not model-implied, not yet calibrated. Judgment inputs, not portfolio instructions.
published — · judgment — · ⚠ 1 disclosure notice
ERRATUM — DISCLOSURE CORRECTION
One active trigger family (BROAD_GROWTH_REACCELERATION) was omitted from the original structured trigger array of this judgment. Its status at publication time was UNEVALUABLE (methodology study pending) — encoded as absent rather than explicitly unevaluable.
The original published record has not been modified. Corrections are appended, never rewritten.
Why trust the record
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Versioned
Every published judgment carries an explicit framework and engine version.
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Preserved
Published judgments are not overwritten when the view changes. The original stays exactly as first published.
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Traceable
The current judgment and its provenance are machine-retrievable through the API.
Live track record began Sep 18, 2026.
Published judgments1
Resolved judgments0
CalibrationINSUFFICIENT LIVE SAMPLE
Disclosure notices1
What we're watching
Labor deteriorationWATCHING
Labor stabilizationWATCHING
Inflation reaccelerationINACTIVE
Broad growth reaccelerationINACTIVE
Credit deteriorationINACTIVE
How this judgment is made — and its current limits
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Not a fully automated forecasting model
macro-us v1.0 is a versioned adjudication framework: point-in-time macro evidence, explicit state and path definitions, trigger rules, and human judgment. The 27/53/20 probabilities are human-adjudicated under this framework.
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Machine-enforced vs human-adjudicated
Data ingestion and PIT provenance: machine-enforced. Metric transformations: rule-based. Trigger evaluation: mixed. Path probabilities: human-adjudicated. Ledger and resolution: machine-enforced / external adjudicator (NBER for recession).
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Resolution semantics
Recession: NBER determination. Reacceleration: threshold under pre-registered methodology study. Continued Expansion: residual non-recession, non-reacceleration path. Paths are evaluated in that priority order.
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Integrity boundary
Judgments are preserved, append-only and tamper-evident under RegimeLab's own protocol. This is not a trustless or consensus-based system.
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Open limitations
Live history is short. Calibration is not yet established. Some triggers are adjudicated rather than mechanically reproducible. The reacceleration resolution methodology is being finalized prospectively.